The Cincinnati Bengals (5-6) travel to Jacksonville to play the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) on Monday night to conclude Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season.
From a betting perspective, what can we anticipate?
Seth Walder, Tyler Fulghum, and Aaron Schatz, three betting experts, are available to provide their opinions.
Jaguars at Bengals (-9.5, 39.5). In the last eight games, the Jaguars have won seven of them handily. In what way are you placing your wager?
Schatz: The Bengals’ defense may have a greater advantage in this game despite the absence of Joe Burrow. In terms of defensive DVOA, the Bengals rank only 26th, including 29th against the run. This season, the Jaguars are sixth in defense and, even more unexpectedly, first in DVOA against the run. When you combine that with the difference between Trevor Lawrence and Jake Browning, I feel confident choosing Jaguars -9.5.
Fulghum: Jaguars 1H-5.5 | Jaguars-9.5 | UNDER 39.5. This is a good location for the Jaguars. After emerging off their bye and losing badly to San Francisco in Week 10, they’ve fully reset. After crushing the Titans in Week 11, they traveled to Houston for a decisive divisional victory in Week 12. In the meanwhile, Burrow and the Bengals have dropped two games over that time. Jags, you have the advantage.
How does the performance of Bengals backup quarterback Jake Browning, who made his first start last week in a defeat to Pittsburgh, affect your decision to wager this game?
Schatz: Considering the caliber of the defense he was facing, Browning’s first start wasn’t all that horrible. However, use caution when elevating backup quarterbacks based on a single strong performance, since opponents may not yet have access to video detailing the quarterback’s habits in addition to the tiny sample size. I thus believe that the Bengals’ offense is far behind what it might be with a healthy Joe Burrow when I wager on this game. That’s why I’m starting to tilt towards the Jaguars.
Fulghum Browning has a difficult challenge ahead of him. In the Bengals’ home defeat to the Steelers last week, when their offense managed only 10 points due to very fortunate tipped passes that Ja’Marr Chase was still able to catch, he looked anything but inspirational. This season, the Jacksonville defense has excelled, particularly against the run and on third downs. Browning as quarterback just makes me more of a Jags fan.
8-3 is how the Jaguars start the game. Which of the following exact win total bets are you most likely to place a wager on, if any? Wins totaling: 14 (+1000), 13 (+300), 12 (+185), 11 (+260), 10 (+650), or 9 (+2000).
Walder: I would want to rely completely on predictions when answering a question like this. And based on ours, you should avoid this. In essence, here is where our ESPN Analytics model is available for use, but if you must place a wager, we provide the merest suggestion of value at 11 wins (+260), which we would price at +258.
Fulghum Though I have faith in Walder’s calculations, a close examination of the schedule suggests the Jaguars will be the favorite in five of their previous six games, including Monday. As a Jags supporter, why not wager on 13 victories (+300)?
Which prop bet is your favorite for the competition on Monday?
Schatz: Evan Engram surpasses 41.5 yards of reception. Five different tight ends have scored at least 70 yards in a game against the Bengals, and Cincinnati is ranked 30th in DVOA versus tight ends. Engram has played in eight of the 11 games this season with at least 40 receiving yards.
Travon Walker has OVER 0.5 sacks (+145) for Walder. Despite the small sample size, Browning’s 13% sack percentage should be appealing to opposition pass-rushers. Walker will also benefit from facing Bengals right tackle Jonah Williams, who entered Sunday rated 55th out of 70 tackles in terms of pass block victory percentage. My score is above -104.
Fulghum: Trevor Lawrence UNDER 32.5 throw attempts (-130) | Travis Etienne Jr. OVER 66.5 run yards (-120). Jacksonville is a 9.5-point home favorite against an opponent that is outmatched, thus game script should enable them to run the ball often and pass it sometimes while maintaining a sizable lead. I find it difficult to see the Bengals offense under Browning forcing a lot of drops from Trevor Lawrence.
Calvin Ridley had over 57.5 receiving yards (Moody). In three of his last four games, Ridley has over 57.5 receiving yards while averaging 7.0 targets per contest. Since rival defenses can no longer double cover Ridley, Zay Jones’ comeback has also benefited him. With the sixth-highest passing yards allowed per game by opponents, the Bengals defense presents Ridley with a primetime chance to shine.
What other games are you planning to play on Monday?
Tyson Campbell, over 0.5 interceptions (+1000), for Walder. The Jaguars defense is likely to have a pick or two available since Browning is a huge favorite against a nameless backup (Browning is -170 to throw at least one interception and +275 to throw at least two). Darious Williams, another cornerback for the Jaguars, is priced at +390, but Campbell is available for +1000, which my model values at +762.
Moody: Joe Mixon’s total running + receiving yards should not exceed 69.5. Monday night’s 10-point underdog status for the Bengals is statistical proof of how Jake Browning affects Cincinnati’s offense. Mixon will have to contend with a strong Jaguars defense that allows the fewest running yards per game and is sixth in run stop victory percentage.
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