Two goals topped Craig Counsell’s wish list when he entered manager free agency this month: to respect his Midwestern heritage and to revive the manager and coach financial market, which had been in shambles. Those were two goals that only the Cubs could accomplish. He is the manager of Chicago now because of this.
In the rapid stream of news, the outcomes of managerial manic Monday—Counsell to the Cubs, David Ross out of a Chicago position, Carlos Mendoza to the Mets, and Stephen Vogt to the Guardians—seemed startling. To the Cubs, Counsell looked to be the greatest surprise of all. However, the outcome makes complete sense given Counsell’s background and motivation to achieve free agency in the first place.
The Cubs called him on the first day he was a free agent because they knew this.
Chicago knew full well that Counsell was born and raised in Wisconsin, attended Notre Dame, has boys playing collegiate baseball at Michigan and Minnesota, and has two daughters enrolled in Wisconsin high schools. As per an informed source acquainted with the talks between Counsell and the Cubs, “The Midwest [pull] is real.”
One of Counsell’s pals informed the Cubs as they completed their study that “if he ever managed anywhere else, the Cubs have always been his dream job,” referring to Counsell’s decision to play out the season rather than accept an extension with Milwaukee.
On November 1, the day after his Milwaukee contract ended, Counsell became a free agent. The Cubs were so interested in obtaining “one of the one or two best managers in the game,” according to a club insider, that they made a call on November 1.
The Mets had already been in touch with Counsell by then. The process was accelerated when David Stearns, the recently appointed president of baseball operations for the Mets, contacted his former team, Milwaukee, to request permission to speak with Counsell prior to the expiration of his contract. The Mets were seen as the most probable club to hire Counsell because of Steve Cohen’s financial resources and the fact that Stearns and Counsell had seven years of combined experience as general manager and manager in Milwaukee.
There was one issue and one assumption with it. Counsell was not employed by Stearns in Milwaukee. When he became general manager in September 2015, he inherited him. Although they were not very close, they got along well, especially because Milwaukee was starting to use statistics more often when making choices about games. Furthermore, the Mets’ financial advantage was countered by the team’s position on the winning curve and its geographic location. Rich as money may be, it’s not a glamorous profession.
According to a person who talked with Counsell at the time, “people were still writing that it looked like it was Counsell’s job over the last few days.” No, it was untrue. Over the last few days, he was almost absent. His list did not start with New York.
“If you look at recent history, managers don’t come out well on the other side of that job,” one executive says.
In the previous eight seasons, Mendoza will be the sixth manager to be selected by the Mets, after Terry Collins, Mickey Callaway, Carlos Beltran, Luis Rojas, and Buck Showalter. Recalling Art Howe and Jerry Manuel, none of the previous seven Mets managers who left Queens were able to get another management position.
Stearns need a manager with a working knowledge of the New York environment or with expertise. He ultimately decided on Mendoza, the 44-year-old former bench coach of the Yankees who has never managed above Class A ball. It happens at a time when the competition to find the next inexperienced management genius is becoming less interesting due to experience yielding better outcomes. The last six World Series managers’ ages are as follows: Torey Lovullo, 58, Rob Thomson, 59, Brian Snitker, 65, Bruce Bochy, 68, Dusty Baker, 72, and Baker, 73.
Last season, the Mets were 29 games behind Atlanta, which was the furthest they had gone from the top spot in 20 years. There’s ambiguity in the job on how fast they can rebuild. Similarly, Counsell’s free agency coincided with Milwaukee’s impending reconstruction. After undergoing shoulder surgery, pitcher Brandon Woodruff may miss the whole 2019 season. In anticipation of their impending free agency, pitcher Corbin Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames may be moved this winter.
But as they were (although not quite as drastically) when the franchise fired incumbent manager Rick Renteria in favor of free agency manager Joe Maddon after the 2014 season, the Cubs are on the rise. Similar to how the Cubs felt they had to go after the greatest player when one of the finest managers in the game is available and that player had a strong Midwest connection, they loved Ross.
Counsell received $40 million over five years from Chicago. The $8 million yearly pay sets a record, surpassing Joe Torre’s more than two decades ago $7.5 million ($13.3 million in today’s values) from the Yankees. In baseball, executives rose to prominence rather than managers as analytics expanded. In addition to becoming wealthier than managers, executives lessened the power of managers by putting information-backed systems ahead of common sense.
For example, Maddon received a $5 million annual salary from the Cubs when manager was appointed. Theo Epstein, the president of baseball operations, was earning $3.7 million. By the time Epstein left, he was earning $10 million, and the power dynamic between managers and general managers in MLB had shifted.
In the era of analytics, the financial market for managers collapsed. Terry Francona, who has won two World Series, was allegedly paid $4.5 million last season, the highest amount of any manager in the sport. The deal that Maddon signed eight years ago, prior to his winning a championship, is worth $6.8 million in current currency. Likewise, compensation for big league coaches remain unchanged at a time when the minimum player wage has climbed 42% in the previous eight years to $720,000.
One AL coach said, “That’s one reason you see so many coaches today who never played in the big leagues.” It’s similar to posing the question, “Who wants to coach for $120,000?” Many men who never played would gladly offer to help out. However, if you live in a large market and pay taxes, you are essentially working for free.
The Cubs are all in for the next season based on their investment in Counsell. A manager does not get the highest-paying contract if the player side also contributes significantly.
On the other hand, the Brewers raised Counsell’s salary from $3.5 million to $5.5 million, but they would never match the Cubs’ compensation. A few days before, they chose not to pay a $2 million buyout or bring back veteran outfielder Mark Canha for $11.5 million, instead dealing him to Detroit for a minor league reliever.
A person close to Counsell said, “What I don’t get is why the Brewers just didn’t pay to keep him.”
Counsell was more valuable to the Cubs than the Brewers, given the clubs’ positioning and available resources. Regarding Counsell’s replacement, Milwaukee has a meeting set for Tuesday morning with Pat Murphy, the bench coach under Counsell and a former Notre Dame coach. Murphy is anticipated to get an offer to work as Counsell’s staff member in Chicago.
Milwaukee has two options: either hire a “name brand” manager to attempt to ease the public relations fallout from losing the team’s best manager—to the rival Cubs, no less—or remain in-house while it develops young players from its successful farm system. A source lists Don Mattingly and Ross as among of those potential candidates.
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