The New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers will play on Monday night to conclude Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season.
From a betting perspective, what can we anticipate?
Here to provide their opinions are betting experts Aaron Schatz, Seth Walder, and Eric Moody.
Jets at Chargers (-3.5, 39.5). How do you plan to wager on this match?
Schatz: In this case, I like the total over the spread. Yes, Jets games are usually low-scoring affairs, but in six of the team’s seven games this season, the Chargers have scored more than 40.5 points overall. The Los Angeles defense, which is now rated 27th in DVOA, has just not been good this year. This is part of the problem. I’m going with over 40.5 because both the Jets and the Chargers will be able to move the ball a little bit.
Moody’s For this game, I’m betting on the Jets (+3.5) to cover the spread. The Chargers are going from the West Coast to the East Coast, while New York is playing at home. The Jets’ defense has performed well this season, allowing the fifth fewest opponent passing yards per game and ranking tenth in run stop win percentage. New York will be prepared to face up nationally. I think that this will be a tight game. Since relocating to Los Angeles, the Chargers are just 12-8-1 against the spread when they are the road favorite.
The Jets have won three straight games without making a noise. They haven’t lost since October 1st, when they fell by three points against the Chiefs. Do you think that New York is a squad that has made a turnaround?
Schatz: Explain “Switch it around,” I suppose. To the group that, heading into the season, we assumed would be led by Aaron Rodgers? Not at all. But better than what September brought us? Sure. In terms of offensive DVOA, the Jets were placed 31st in September as opposed to 24th in October. They were ranked 16th in September and now rank fourth in October for their defensive DVOA. The Jets might push for the wild card if they continue to play like they have since that tight defeat to Kansas City. So I think I’m going to purchase.
No, Walder. Zach Wilson is said to be playing better, but I fail to see it. In QBR, he placed 30th in 2021, 28th in 2023 (if he qualified in 2022), and 28th in 2022. The Jets are lucky to be 4-3 with Wilson, and I anticipate that he will hold the club back in the second part of the season despite the defense being really outstanding.
Austin Ekeler’s prop for running yards is 46.5, while Breece Hall’s is set at 57.5. Which rushing back do you think has a better chance of hitting the over?
Moody: 57.5 running yards OVER Hall. After the bye week, he’s prepared for a massive workload for a Jets club that doesn’t seem to want to use Dalvin Cook. In the Giants game last week, Hall got eighteen touches. He has a decent chance of winning against the Chargers defense, who has given up the second-most total yards per game to opponents. Los Angeles’s front line is ranked 21st in terms of run stop victory percentage. Hall is among the top five running backs in terms of rushing attempts of 20 yards or more, even though he only averages 11.1 attempts a game.
Which prop bet on Monday is your best choice?
Schatz: The Chargers almost have the lowest receiving yardage total in the NFL, giving up 58 to running backs each game. In his last two games, Breece Hall has recorded receiving yards of 54 and 76. It seems like Hall will surpass 19.5 receiving yards in the game on Monday night.
Moody: 67.5 receiving yards OVER Garrett Wilson. In the last two games, Wilson has exceeded 67.5 receiving yards. In each of them, he has also attained ten or more goals. The Chargers’ defense gives up more passing yards to opponents per game than any other team. Wilson and quarterback Zach Wilson of the Jets ought to be able to take advantage of this advantageous matchup.
Quinnen Williams UNDER 0.5 sacks (-190) for Walder. Although Williams is an excellent player, a number of factors are against him in this situation. In addition to being the underdog, Justin Herbert, a defensive lineman, has the seventh-lowest sack percentage among quarterbacks this season (5.3%). According to my model, the fair price is -341.
What other games are you planning to play on Monday?
Justin Herbert has a Moody’s grade of 0.5 interceptions. In three of his last four games, Herbert has had a pass intercepted. He’s still playing, but it seems that his finger injury is a problem. Herbert has a decent probability of throwing an interception on the road against a very excellent Jets defense, where there won’t be as much room for mistake as there was against the Bears the previous week.
Jordan Whitehead OVER 4.5 tackles plus assists (-140) for Walder. Whitehead gets a comparable tackle share on run and pass plays and a greater tackle rate on run plays despite being a safety. That implies that Whitehead would benefit from the over if the Chargers gain ground and begin running the ball more often than normal. Whitehead is predicted by my model to record 6.3 tackles plus assists.
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