UEFA Champions League

Champions League qualifying scenarios: How teams can reach knockout stage in final 2022 UEFA group matches

Two Champions League group stage matches left.

Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Napoli, and Club Brugge have secured five of the 16 knockout stage spots.

Barcelona and Atletico Madrid are two surprise major clubs on the brink of Champions League elimination. Some groups have completely open competition.

The new tiebreakers are crucial to this year’s group round. The Champions League now breaks ties using head-to-head results (points gained, goal difference, goals scored) instead of goal differential and goals scored. If two teams are tied in points, the team with the best record in their two matches will be promoted.

The Sporting News examines what each team still in contention must do to reach the knockout stage and what those already eliminated must do to qualify for the Europa League.

Champions League knockout stage: who?

Five teams have advanced to the knockout stage, but at least one slot remains in each group.

With two matches left, three groups have yet to name a knockout stage participant.

Group 1st

Runner-up

Runner-up

A Napoli* TBD

Club Brugge*

Bayern Munich*

D TBD TBD

E TBD TBD

Madrid*

Man City*

H TBD TBD

Group standing shown. Club has mathematically qualified for the Round of 16, but placing (1st or 2nd) is unknown.

League A scenarios

A standings

Rank Club W-D-L GD Pts

1.

Napoli 4-0-0 +13 12

2.

Liverpool 3-0-1 +6 9

3.

Ajax 1-0-3 -4 3

4.

Rangers 0-0-4 -15 0

Scenarios A

Napoli have annihilated Group A, and Liverpool are “dormie”—any points from the Reds or dropped points by Ajax would put Liverpool through. Rangers can qualify for the Europa League by finishing third.

Napoli advances:

Rangers knocked out.

Liverpool qualify for the knockout phase with one of these:

• One point in the last two matches (Ajax, Napoli).

Ajax draw or lose to Rangers

Ajax qualify for knockout round with one of these:

• Wins against Liverpool and Rangers by two or more goals and Liverpool loss to Napoli

• Last two wins (against. Liverpool, At Rangers) by 1 goal while scoring 3+ goals AND Liverpool loss vs. Napoli

• Wins previous two matches (against. Liverpool, @ Rangers) by 1 goal AND Liverpool defeat vs. Napoli AND make up 10-goal differential gap to Liverpool

Ajax qualify for Europa League:

Final two matches: 4 points

Ajax defeat Rangers in last round

• 1 point in final two matches and Rangers loss to Napoli

Rangers qualify for Europa League:

• Rangers beat Napoli and Ajax lose or draw against Liverpool.

• Rangers tie against Napoli, win against Ajax, and lose to Liverpool.

• Ajax loses to Liverpool AND Rangers wins by 5 or more goals

B rankings

Rank Club W-D-L GD Pts

1.

3-1-0 +7 10.

2.

Porto 2-0-2 0 6

3.

Madrid 1-1-2-3-4

4.

Bayer Leverkusen 1-0-3-4

Scenarios B

Club Brugge were not expected to dominate Group B like way, but they need one point to move to the knockout stage. All three teams are competing for the second knockout stage position below them. Porto leads, but they do not have a match left against struggling Bayer Leverkusen and must keep the other two below them at bay.

Club Brugge advances:

Porto qualify for knockout round with one of these:

• Club Brugge win and Atletico Madrid loss or draw vs. Bayer Leverkusen

• Final-round win over Atletico Madrid

• Draw both remaining matches (@ Club Brugge, vs. Atletico Madrid) AND Atletico Madrid draw or lose vs. Bayer Leverkusen.

• Draw in either of the remaining two matches AND Atletico Madrid loss against Bayer Leverkusen

Atletico Madrid qualify for the knockout stage with one of these:

• Wins in final two matches (Bayer Leverkusen, Porto)

• Win and Porto defeat.

• Final two draws AND Bayer Leverkusen draw or defeat vs. Club Brugge

Bayer Leverkusen qualify for the knockout round:

• Win in final two matches (@ Atletico Madrid, vs. Club Brugge) AND Porto loss AND Atletico Madrid dropped points in final two matchups

Dropped points eliminate Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer is eliminated if Atletico Madrid or Porto win, so a draw is preferable. Bayer’s ceiling with dropped points in either match would be 7 points, however Porto defeated Bayer twice, losing the tiebreaker.

C standings

Rank Club W-D-L GD Pts

1.

Bayern Munich 4–0–12

2.

Milan 2-1-1 +7

3.

Barcelona 1-1-2 +1 4

4.

Viktoria Plzen 0-0-4-13 0

Scenarios C

Barcelona’s Champions League “Group of Death” fate is in the balance. The Blaugrana may be destroyed shortly. After two losses to Inter Milan, they need points and outside support.

Bayern Munich advances:

Knockout elimination: Viktoria Plzen

Inter Milan qualify for the knockout round:

• Win either final two matches (Viktoria Plzen, Bayern Munich).

• Draw in either final two matches AND any dropped points by Barcelona

• Barcelona loss in either of final two matches

Barcelona qualify for elimination round with one of the following:

• Win both remaining two matches (against. Bayern Munich, At Viktoria Plzen) and Inter gain 1 or 0 points.

• 4 points in last two matches AND Inter lose final two

Barcelona qualify for Europa League:

• Win final two matches

• Final two draws

• Viktoria Plzen loses in final two matches

• Viktoria Plzen lost points in either of the final two matches.

D standings

Rank Club W-D-L GD Pts

1.

Tottenham 2-1-1 +1 7

2.

2-0-2 6

3.

Marseille 2-0-2 +2 6

4.

Frankfurt 1–2–3–4

Group D cases

Group D is one of the most competitive, with all teams in contention for a knockout round spot. Only Marseille lost twice to Sporting, giving the Portuguese team the tiebreaker advantage. Frankfurt must win both games to advance, but a loss in any game eliminates them.

No knockouts.

Tottenham qualify for the knockout rounds:

Win over Sporting CP

• Draw Sporting CP and win Marseille

• Loss vs. Sporting CP AND win vs. Marseille AND Frankfurt dropped points in any of last two matches

• Draw both final matches AND Frankfurt beat either Sporting CP or Marseille but not both

• Loss or draw against Sporting CP, Marseille, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Marseille.

Sporting CP qualify for knockout round with one of these:

• Win final two matches (at Tottenham, Eintracht Frankfurt)

• Matching Marseille and Eintracht Frankfurt’s dropped points

• Win last round vs Tottenham and Marseille draw both final matches

Marseille qualify for elimination round with one of the following:

• Beating Sporting CP and Eintracht Frankfurt’s dropped points

• Win against Tottenham and Sporting CP draw in both final matches

Marseille would be eliminated if they meet Tottenham and lose to Eintracht Frankfurt, since Sporting CP or Eintracht Frankfurt would overtake them in Round 6.

Eintracht Frankfurt qualify for the knockout round:

• Win final two matches (Marseille, Sporting CP)

• Win against Marseille and draw or lose against Sporting CP and Tottenham.

• Win against Sporting CP, draw against Marseille, and lose or draw against Tottenham

Frankfurt would be eliminated if they lose either of their remaining two matches, as the team they lose to would be eliminated and they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Tottenham.

E standings

Rank Club W-D-L GD Pts

1.

Chelsea 2-1-1 +4 7

2.

Salzburg 1-3-0+1 6

3.

Milan 1-2-3-4

4.

Dinamo Zagreb 1-1-2-4

E-group situations

Group E, like Group D, has three clubs remaining in contention. All four teams, including last-placed Dinamo Zagreb, may potentially win their remaining two matches.

No knockouts.

Chelsea qualify for the elimination phase with one of these:

• Four points in final two matches (RB Salzburg, Dinamo Zagreb).

• RB Salzburg win and Dinamo Zagreb loss or tie vs. AC Milan

• Beat Dinamo Zagreb

• 2 points across final two matches AND RB Salzburg loss or draw vs. AC Milan AND AC Milan loss or tie in either last two matchups

Chelsea can advance if they get one point in the final two matches, but it requires a lot of tiebreakers.

RB Salzburg qualify for the knockout round:

• Win final two games (Chelsea, AC Milan)

• Beat Chelsea and draw Dinamo Zagreb vs. AC Milan

• AC Milan win and Dinamo Zagreb loss or draw.

• Draw both final matches AND AC Milan and Dinamo Zagreb lose at least once OR

• Dinamo Zagreb does not win out and AC Milan does not win either match.

AC Milan qualify for the knockout round:

• Win final two matches (Dinamo Zagreb, RB Salzburg).

• 4 points in remaining two matches AND RB Salzburg draw or lose to Chelsea

• Win over RB Salzburg, loss to Dinamo Zagreb by one goal, and loss to Chelsea.

Dinamo Zagreb qualify for knockout round with one of the following:

• Wins final two (AC Milan, Chelsea)

• Win against AC Milan, draw with Chelsea, and lose to RB Salzburg.

• Draw against AC Milan, win against Chelsea, and draw or lose against RB Salzburg.

Dinamo Zagreb do not own the tiebreaker over RB Salzburg.

F standings

Rank Club W-D-L GD Pts

1.

Madrid 3–1–6

2.

Leipzig 2-0-2-1 6

3.

Shakhtar Donetsk 1-2-1+2

4.

Celtic 0-1-3 -7 1

F-group scenarios

After Real Madrid, RB Leipzig and Shakhtar Donetsk are competing for the last knockout stage slot. Celtic need support to qualify for the Europa League.

Real Madrid wins knockout round

Knockout: Celtic

RB Leipzig qualify for the knockout stage with one of these:

• Win vs. Real Madrid AND Shakhtar Donetsk loss vs. Celtic OR RB Leipzig draw vs. Shakhtar.

• Beat Shakhtar Donetsk

• Draw and Shakhtar Donetsk loss against Celtic

Shakhtar Donestk qualify for knockout round with one of these:

• Win remaining matches (Celtic, RB Leipzig)

• Beat RB Leipzig and Real Madrid lose or draw.

• Beat Celtic, draw RB Leipzig, and lose to Real Madrid.

Celtic qualify for Europa League:

## Win Shakhtar Donetsk and Real Madrid matches.

• Win, draw, and lose against Shakhtar Donetsk, Real Madrid, and RB Leipzig.

G rankings

Rank Club W-D-L GD Pts

1.

City 3-1-0 +10

2.

Dortmund 2-1-1 +5

3.

Sevilla 0-2-2 -7 2

4.

Copenhagen 0-2-2-8

G-scenarios

Sevilla and FC Copenhagen need wins in their next two matches and a Dortmund collapse to advance from Group G.

City wins knockout round

Knockout elimination: NONE

Borussia Dortmund qualify for the knockout phase with one of these:

• Win either of the two matches (Man City, FC Copenhagen).

• Final two draws

• Draw in either of final two matches AND Sevilla does not win out OR FC Copenhagen loss or draw vs. Man City OR Dortmund loss to FC Copenhagen by fewer than 3 goals

Sevilla qualify for elimination round with one of the following:

• Win both final two matches (FC Copenhagen, @ Man City) and Borussia Dortmund does not get a point.

Sevilla must overcome Dortmund on points after losing the tiebreaker.

FC Copenhagen qualify for the knockout round:

• Win both final matches (@ Sevilla, vs. Borussia Dortmund) AND Borussia Dortmund tie or lose vs. Man City

H standings

Rank Club W-D-L GD Pts

1.

PSG 2-2-0 +3 8

2.

Benfica 2-2-0 +3 8

3.

Juventus 1-0-3 -2 3

4.

3 Maccabi Haifa

H-scenarios

Group H appears open. PSG and Benfica need two points to qualify, but even one would help. The bottom two need wins and outside aid, and they both play PSG.

No knockouts.

PSG qualify for knockout round with one of these:

• Two points in final two matches (Maccabi Haifa, Juventus)

• Maccabi Haifa draw and Juventus loss or draw vs. Benfica

• 1–0 Maccabi Haifa loss and Juventus loss or draw vs. Benfica

• Maccabi Haifa defeat or draw vs. Benfica AND Juventus draw

Benfica qualify for knockout round with one of these:

• Two points in final two matches (Juventus, Maccabi Haifa).

• Maccabi Haifa defeat or draw vs. PSG AND Juventus draw

• Maccabi Haifa draw and Juventus defeat or draw vs. PSG

Juventus qualify for the knockout round:

• Win both remaining games (@ Benfica, vs. PSG) and PSG or Benfica lose to Maccabi Haifa.

Maccabi Haifa qualify for knockout round with one of these:

• Win both remaining games (@ PSG, vs. Benfica) AND PSG or Benfica lose to Benfica

• Win both remaining games (@ PSG, vs. Benfica), including 2+ goal win against. PSG and PSG draw vs. Juventus.

Champions League group tiebreakers

Every goal matters in the UEFA Champions League because it could be used in tiebreakers if clubs finish tied on points at the end of the group stage (three points for a win, one for a draw, none for a loss).

The official tournament regulations include UEFA Champions League group stage tiebreakers for clubs tied in points:

1.

points from team group matches

2.

better goal difference from team group matches

3.

goals in team group matches

4.

in all group matches

5.

all group matches goals

6.

away goals in all group games

7.

all group games

8.

all group wins away

9.

only yellow and red card disciplinary points

10.

UEFA coefficient

One quirk of the tiebreaker rules: if three or more teams are deadlocked on points and tiebreakers No. 1-3 separate only one of them, then tiebreakers No. 1-3 are reapplied to any remaining tied teams before moving on to tiebreakers No. 4-10.

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