Even before the WNBA All-Star Game in July, it was evident that three players were vying for the league’s 2023 MVP award. Since then, commentators have often said that Alyssa Thomas of the Connecticut Sun, Breanna Stewart of the New York Liberty, and A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces were all worthy of the award.
However, while there is no “wrong” pick, there is no “right” decision, which meant that MVP voting would make one team/fan base pleased while making two others unhappy.
In a national media poll on Tuesday, Stewart earned her second MVP with 446 points, beating out Thomas (439) and Wilson (433). Wilson was attempting to become the fourth three-time MVP and just the second player in history to win the award in consecutive years.
The MVP did not get the most first-place votes for the second time in WNBA history. Stewart scored 20 points against Thomas’ 23, and Wilson had 17. Sheryl Swoopes won the award in 2005 with 16 first-place votes against runner-up Lauren Jackson’s 20.
Votes were sent to the league office by Sept. 10, the last day of the regular season. So nothing players have done since then – Wilson is averaging 28.7 points on 64.3% shooting in three playoff games, while Stewart’s shooting has dropped to 28.8% in three playoff games – has had any bearing on who earned the MVP.
What does matter is how voters judge performance and define what MVP means. Which statistics do they place the most emphasis on? How did they divide the difference between three terrific seasons for players on the league’s top three teams in the standings if they were splitting hairs? In the end, Stewart’s position on the ballot made the difference, as he received 23 second-place votes and 17 third-place votes, compared to Thomas’ 12 and 25, and Wilson’s 25 and 17.
Before all three players take the court in the WNBA semifinal doubleheader on Tuesday night, New York hosts Connecticut at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN App), followed by Dallas-Las Vegas at 10 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN App). — WNBA award voters Michael Voepel, Alexa Philippou, and Kevin Pelton of ESPN assess the MVP result and response.
How close did this race get?
The fact that three players received such a big number of the first-place votes made this year’s MVP voting unique. The previous closest three-way race in league history occurred in 1999, when Yolanda Griffith (23), Swoopes (15), and Cynthia Cooper (13) all received double-digit first-place votes for the league-leading Houston Comets, with teammates Cooper and Swoopes sharing support for the league-leading Houston Comets.
Even in 1999, though, the top three contenders were clearly separated. Griffith finished 33 points ahead of runner-up Swoopes, a far wider margin than the one between the first and third-place finishers this year.
The closest three-player race to this in the NBA occurred in 1989-90, when Charles Barkley (38), Magic Johnson (27) and Michael Jordan (21) shared first-place votes. Despite receiving the most first-place votes, Barkley finished second behind Johnson because more people placed him lower on the ballot, as Thomas did. The margin between Johnson and Barkley (22 points) was wider than the margin between Stewart and Wilson this year, but there was also a larger voting pool.
One notable difference between this and other tight contests is that virtually every voter felt that Stewart, Thomas, and Wilson were the three most important players. Wilson’s teammate Chelsea Grey received a single third-place vote, and it seems the voter chose Wilson for fourth place.
This is distinct from previous tight elections. Swoopes won the election with fewer first-place votes than Jackson in 2005, although two people did not vote at all. If those voters had placed Jackson sixth, she would have tied with Swoopes.
Because Stewart’s margin was so thin, no one voter’s decision would have changed the outcome.
Another important difference from previous tight races: both Jackson and Swoopes had previously won MVP in 2005, and they would complete their Hall of Fame careers with three each. Barkley was named MVP in 1992-93, following former champions Johnson and Jordan. Although Wilson has two MVPs, Thomas has never won one, and this may have been her best chance. — Pelton
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How the Voting Process Worked
The 60 WNBA voting sportswriters and broadcasters from local markets and national media members submitted their top five candidates for MVP in order, with their first-place selection receiving 10 points, second-place receiving seven points, third-place receiving five points, fourth-place receiving three points, and fifth-place receiving one point. The MVP is the player who gets the most points throughout that procedure.
Stewart’s dominance in the top two voting slots was largely responsible for her victory over Thomas and Wilson, despite the fact that she did not get the most first-, second-, or third-place votes individually.
Grey was the only other player to get a top-three vote, finishing third on one person’s MVP ballot.
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Stewart’s Argument
My wins above replacement player box-score measure has tended to identify the winner of MVP more regularly as the voting electorate has become more stats-savvy. After just four of the first 17 MVP awards went to that year’s WARP leader, the WARP leader has now won the hardware eight times in the last ten years.
Stewart was due for a second MVP award, according to advanced statistics. Wilson topped the league in WARP in both 2020 and 2022, when her Aces finished with a better record than Stewart’s Seattle Storm squads.
This time, the margin was substantially narrower. Wilson’s excellent last weekend of the regular season resulted in a higher player net rating than Stewart, the per-minute component of WARP that does not account for playing time. Stewart ended with 12.0 WARP to Wilson’s 11.7 after accounting for her extra 137 minutes, the third-smallest difference between the top two finishers in WNBA history.
Tamika Catchings and Lauren Jackson both ended with 11.3 WARP in 2003, and Jackson was named MVP while Catchings finished second. Candace Parker and Diana Taurasi both had 9.3 WARP in 2008, with Parker winning and Taurasi finishing fifth in tight vote. — Pelton
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The Thomas Defence
Many fans on social media were furious when the voting breakdowns were released because Thomas had the most first-place votes but did not win the prize – simply because a majority of people ranked her third on their ballots. the hasn’t happened very frequently in WNBA MVP voting history: as Pelton pointed out, Jackson and Swoopes both ended up with three MVPs and had previously won when the unique vote occurred in 2005.
Thomas’ thesis centred on how she upped her game to a new level despite having less talent surrounding her and dealing with a flurry of summer and midseason changes inside Connecticut, all while achieving things never seen in the league: This season, she topped the WNBA in total rebounds and total assists, not to mention her six triple-doubles.
Her game isn’t always spectacular, but what Thomas does is very tough to repeat, and there’s no assurance she’ll be able to do it. In that regard, her 2023 season was genuinely exceptional.
If there’s one thing we know about Thomas, it’s that her major objective is to win a WNBA championship, and the Sun are five games away from doing it. Failure to win MVP has no influence on her or Connecticut’s goal, but it may increase her drive. – Philippe
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The Wilson Argument
This was a season in which each advocate for each athlete might have delivered a strong speech that left you thinking, “Yeah, it’s got to be her.” So we anticipated this news would spark a lot of the same argument we’d had all season. And that argument is OK if it doesn’t go into denigrating any of the three incredibly worthy candidates or insinuating that some evil plot was at work in the vote.
I didn’t cast my ballot until an hour before the deadline, and I went with the guy who had been at the front of my thoughts for the most of the season: Wilson. She won the award last year and then improved her performance this year, ending with career-high averages in scoring (22.8), rebounding (9.5), blocked shots (2.2), and shooting % (55.7).
Wilson was the Aces’ sole top post scoring threat with Candace Parker injured and out since before the All-Star Game. Grey, Jackie Young, and Kelsey Plum are the Aces’ three All-Star guards. And centre Kiah Stokes does an excellent job of carrying out her role in the offence.
But Wilson, who was vying to become the first back-to-back MVP since Cynthia Cooper of the Houston Comets in 1997-98, is the centre of attention for the Aces, who ended with the league’s best record (34-6) and seemed to be growing stronger down the line. So she received my vote, but I would not quarrel with votes for Stewart or Thomas. If there was ever a season in which the MVP award couldn’t be given to a single player, it was this one. – Voepel
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