On Sunday night, the Denver Nuggets will aim to keep their home-court advantage when they play the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals. Denver won the series opening 104-93 on Thursday, shooting more than 50% from the field. Miami has won the first game in each of its past three playoff series, so the Heat will be in uncharted terrain in Game 2.
The game begins at 8 p.m. ET in Denver. In the current Heat vs. Nuggets odds, Caesars Sportsbook has the Nuggets as 8-point home favourites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas believes will be scored, is 216.5. Check out SportsLine’s powerful computer model before making any Nuggets vs. Heat selections or NBA predictions.
Over the last four seasons, the SportsLine Projection Model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and has produced well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA choices. This season, the model was a staggering 72-38 on all top-rated NBA choices, returning approximately $2,900. Anyone who has followed it has received massive returns.
The computer has now zeroed in on Heat vs. Nuggets and has already made its choices and NBA Finals predictions. You can now see the model’s choices on SportsLine. Here are some NBA betting odds and trends for the Nuggets vs. Heat matchup:
• Heat vs. Nuggets point spread: Nuggets -8 • Heat vs. Nuggets total: 216.5 points
• Money line for the Heat versus. Nuggets: Nuggets -345, Heat +270
• MIA: In away games, the Heat are 22-28-1 against the spread.
• DEN: In home games, the Nuggets are 31-18-1 against the spread.
Why can the Heat cover?
While Miami struggled to score at times in Game 1, the Heat showed off their incredible defence. In the game, Miami restricted Denver to less than 1.12 points per possession, while the Nuggets shot just 8-of-27 from 3-point range. Miami also grabbed over 83% of available defensive rebounds, dominating possession and winning by a large margin. Throughout the playoffs, the Heat have allowed just 111.5 points per 100 possessions, thanks to a varied strategy that has resulted in 7.3 steals per game.
Miami’s opponents are shooting just 32.3% from 3-point range in the playoffs, while the Heat are allowing 11.5 fast break points and 44.8 points in the paint per game. Miami is a top-10 defensive club in the league dating back to the regular season, and the Heat performed at a top-five level in free throw prevention, turnover generation, points allowed in the paint, fast break points allowed, and defensive rebounding throughout the 82-game regular season marathon. Check out which team to choose here.
Why the Nuggets are capable of covering
Denver has dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning and covering the spread in seven consecutive meetings. Following their 104-93 victory on Thursday, the Nuggets are on a seven-game winning run. They led by nine points at the conclusion of the first quarter, 17 points at halftime, and 21 points at the end of the third quarter, making the final score seem closer than it was.
Nikola Jokic, the two-time MVP, had another triple-double, ending with 27 points, 14 assists, and 10 rebounds. Miami struggled to find a rhythm, shooting slightly more over 40% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. In their previous six games in June, the Heat have only covered the spread once. Check out which team to choose here.
Picking the Nuggets vs. the Heat
The total is favoured by SportsLine’s model, which predicts 219 combined points. According to the model, one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time.
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