2023 NBA Finals selections, Game 1 best bets by model on 72-38 roll

2023 NBA Finals selections, Game 1 best bets by model on 72-38 roll

The 2023 NBA Finals begin on Thursday at Ball Arena. The Denver Nuggets take on the Miami Heat in Game 1 of a best-of-seven series for the NBA title. Denver is 12-3 in the playoffs after receiving the Western Conference’s top seed, and the Nuggets beat the Los Angeles Lakers in a sweep in the Western Conference finals. Miami defeated the Boston Celtics in seven games, advancing to the NBA Finals as the No. 8 seed in the East.

The game begins at 8:30 p.m. ET in Denver. In the current Heat vs. Nuggets odds, Denver is the 8.5-point home favourite, while the over/under, or total amount of points Vegas believes will be scored, is 219. Before making any Nuggets vs. Heat predictions, check out SportsLine’s powerful computer model’s NBA playoff predictions and betting recommendations.

Over the last four seasons, the SportsLine Projection Model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and has produced well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA choices. This season, the model is a staggering 72-38 on all top-rated NBA choices, returning approximately $2,900. Anyone who has followed it has received massive returns.

The computer has now zeroed in on Heat vs. Nuggets and has already made its choices and NBA Finals predictions. You can now see the model’s choices on SportsLine. Here are some NBA betting odds and trends for the Nuggets vs. Heat matchup:

• Heat vs. Nuggets point spread: Nuggets -8.5 • Heat vs. Nuggets total: 219 points

• Money line for the Heat versus. Nuggets: Nuggets -400, Heat +310

• MIA: The Heat are 22-27-1 against the spread when playing on the road. • DEN: The Nuggets are 30-18-1 against the spread when playing at home.

The Heat’s ability to cover Miami’s defence is a fascinating X-factor, with intriguing cohesiveness and efficacy. The Heat have produced more than 1.16 points per possession in the 2023 NBA playoffs, but everything begins on the other end with a bunch led by Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. In Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals, the Heat limited the Celtics to 84 points, a season low, and Miami has allowed just 111.5 points per 100 possessions all playoffs. During the playoffs, no team is scoring more points off turnovers (19.3 per game) than Miami, and the Heat are averaging 7.4 thefts per game.

Opponents are similarly failing to make shots against Miami, completing just 45.7% of field goal attempts and 32.5% of 3-point tries in the previous round, while Boston made only 30.3% of 3-point attempts. The Heat also allow just 22.5 assists and 44.8 points in the paint per game, and Miami finished the regular season with top-four rankings in free throw prevention, defensive rebounding, turnover generation, and points allowed in the paint. Check out which team to choose here.

Why the Nuggets are capable of covering

Denver had a significant rest advantage to start the series, with Miami requiring seven games to upset Boston and the Nuggets beating the Lakers in four. Furthermore, the Nuggets have home-court advantage, and Denver dominates at Ball Arena. Following a stellar regular season at home, the Nuggets are 8-0 in the playoffs, outscoring opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions.

Denver also has the best five-man unit in the NBA this season, with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope leading the league in net rating (+13.1) during the regular season and 120.7 points per 100 possessions when they play together in the playoffs. Denver is also outstanding offensively, leading the league with 119.7 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs. This includes NBA-leading figures in points in the paint, turnover rate, and true shooting %, led by the lethal duo of Jokic and Murray. See which team to choose here.

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